Tag Archives: china
Home buyers set to see sustained period of low borrowing in UK
Home buyers in the UK, including buy to let investors can look forward to a sustained period of low borrowing rates, according to housing market lenders, due to the lowest ever bank base rate. The decision by the Bank of England to reduce the interest rate to 0.25% and the possibility of it going even lower, brings to an end the longest period of no change in rates since the War/post-War years of 1937 to 1951. Bank rate was cut from 1% to 0.5% in March 2009, and remained there till it was cut again last week. The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) points out that mortgage rates have fallen significantly over that period. The average mortgage rate over that period has fallen from 3.8% to 2.9%. It also points out that the bank rate is not the only influence. Funding costs, levels of competition, targeted levels of profitability, and an assessment of current and future market conditions to price appropriately for risk are also relevant factors. So it also follows that a rate cut does not automatically feed through on a like for like basis to mortgage rates. Future pricing will depend on all the factors above and is a matter for individual lenders. Around 50% of borrowers are currently on fixed rates and will therefore see no immediate impact on their payments in any case. Of the remaining 4.9 million home owners with a variable rate mortgage, over 1.5 million have a tracker rate mortgage and these borrowers may automatically see a rate reduction depending on their mortgage contract but some will have a lower level below which rates cannot fall. For new borrowers, mortgage pricing is extremely competitive and set to remain so. However, it is worth noting that the Bank has also been urging borrowers to plan ahead for the prospect of higher rates in the future and the CML said consumers should not assume that just because rates are low now, they will necessarily stay that way for a prolonged period. Recently, fixed rates have been accounting for about 90% of new lending, and while this is partly because they have been priced attractively, it's also likely to reflect a consumer appetite for certainty about outgoings. CML director general Paul Smee believes that some hesitation on the part of consumers thinking about buying property is understandable against the backdrop of recent political uncertainty. However, mortgage lenders are well capitalised and resilient and open for business to lend, in line with consumer demand as and when confidence levels bounce back. ‘Since the last change in official rate in March 2009, the average mortgage rate has already fallen from 3.8% to 2.9%. This confirms that bank rate is not the only influence on mortgage pricing; we feel that the mortgage market is at present well capitalised, resilient and open for business. Housing market fundamentals are sound,’ he explained. ‘So, we see the cut as a wider reaction to the economic effects of… Continue reading
A year of above average leasing predicted for central London office market
The central London office market is set to experience another year of above average leasing and investment activity in 2016, according to a new report. However, some 22 million square feet of space could be needed in the next five years, says the analysis from international real estate advisor Savills. Low vacancy rates will help prime rents to climb, although a lack of new buildings capable of demanding the highest rents is likely to lead to topmost rents stabilising over the course of the year, the report explains. Whilst the gap between average prime City and West End rents continues to widen at £74.15 per square feet and £106.98 per square feet respectively, elsewhere there has been a marked convergence of rents on average Grade A/B office accommodation across Central London. This is likely to mean less movement of occupiers from West to East London or from core to fringe locations. Longer term, Savills predicts that population and economic growth, combined with lease expiries and building obsolescence, could lead to 22 million square feet of additional space being required in London over the next five years. Part of this demand will be serviced by four consecutive years of above average levels of completions in both the City and West End markets, although 21% of space in the City has been pre-let, and 15% in the West End. In the investment market, non-domestic investors attracted by London office’s relative stability and strong comparative returns will continue to drive demand, with 2016 set to be above average in terms of investment volumes. Despite stock market volatility and concerns over a slowdown in the Chinese economy those international investors who have been canvassed continue to identity London as a core focus for their future direct investment activity, with Savills predicting further capital flows from the Middle East, China and North America. Notwithstanding the continued appetite from overseas, Savills expects the market to consolidate around an appetite for core plus and value-add opportunities and therefore a continued sharpening of prime yields, currently at 3% in the City and 4% in the West End, is unlikely to continue. Volumes may well fall as the market becomes more hesitant in the lead up to the outcome of a Brexit referendum. ‘We predict that the Central London office markets will see above average take-up, rental growth and investment volumes in 2016, but these increases will not be as notable as they have been in recent years,’ said Mat Oakley, head of commercial research at Savills. ‘We don’t foresee that an increase in the Bank of England’s base rate will have an impact on yields whilst rents continue to rise. As with the investment market, the leasing market may slow due to external factors such as further ripples from China’s slowdown and a drop in business confidence in anticipation of a Brexit referendum,’ he added. Continue reading
Residential property market in China picked up in third quarter of 2015
The residential property market in mainland China picked up gradually in the third quarter of 2015 amid a series of favourable policies such as cuts in interest rates, relaxed restrictions on foreign purchase and an easing of housing provident fund loans. Luxury home prices rose further in first tier cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, where the markets continued to clear inventories, according to the latest Greater China property market report from international real estate firm Knight Frank. It says that the favourable policies will continue to benefit first tier cites, but are less effective in lower tier cities with high inventory levels and weak demand. ‘With Chinese and Hong Kong’s stock market volatility and concerns over an interest-rate hike in the US, Hong Kong’s luxury home buyers tended to wait and see, while secondary landlords were also firm on asking prices, resulting in declines in home sales, rents and prices in the luxury market,’ it explains. It points out that more residential properties are scheduled to complete next year, which will impose further pressure on luxury home rents and prices. In Taipei, amid the government’s regulatory measures, luxury home transactions declined. Landlords became more inclined to hold and rent out their residential assets, leading to increased leasing supply. Nevertheless, luxury residential rents and prices remained stable during the third quarter and the outlook is one of polarisation. The report says the market will be affected by cooling measures, the launch of a combined property and land tax and market expectations. ‘Premium residences in the downtown area will have prices remaining firm, while non-prime luxury homes will experience downward pressure on prices,’ it adds. For the commercial market, the report says that Chinese stock market volatility coupled with growing fears of a slowdown in domestic economic growth, led to a slower pace of corporate expansion, hence weighting on Grade-A office rents in major mainland cities. On the other hand, the People's Bank of China has actively cut interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio since the beginning of this year, aiming to release liquidity in the financial system and ultimately to boost the economy. Grade-A offices prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou rose as investing in such properties became increasingly attractive in such a low interest rate environment. With the completion of more Grade-A office buildings in the cities, rents are expected to face further downward pressure in the future. Hong Kong's Grade-A office market recorded strong performance. With sustained office demand from mainland financial institutions but a lack of supply in core business areas, the vacancy rate fell sharply and companies had to rent at higher rental costs. Due to extremely low availability and high rents in core areas, some firms shifted to more cost effective offices in non-core areas where supply was abundant. This trend is likely to continue next year, the report says, with further growth in office rents in core areas. In Taipei, over 80,000 square meters of Grade-A… Continue reading
