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New report sets out how sensitive the UK housing market is to the economy
There are almost 30 million residential properties in the UK with the market linked to income, wealth and availability of income which makes is sensitive to the overall economic climate, according to a new report. The overview from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) shows that as of 2014 there were 28.1 million properties and as the population continues to grow housing is set to remain an important topic. Since 1980, there has been considerable fluctuation in the UK housing market. Overall, there has been growing demand and relatively limited supply growth. House prices have been increasing, and first time buyers are finding it more difficult to get on the property ladder while home ownership among younger age groups generally has declined. The report points out that on average house prices have increased by 7% per year since 1980 and the year with the greatest annual increase in house prices was 25.6% recorded in 1988 while by 2015, the average price (mix adjusted) of a property in the UK stood at £279,000. There were seven years between 1980 and 2013 where, on average, UK house prices fell, the majority of which occurred during the recession of the early 1990s. The biggest drop, however, was 7.6% in 2009. The economic downturn in 2008 had a considerable impact on the UK housing market. The decline in house prices was accompanied by reduced mortgage availability and stricter lending criteria. The analysis also shows that the number of property sales in the UK almost halved from a peak of 1.67 million in 2006 to 0.85 million in 2009 but since then the number of sales has partially recovered, increasing to 1.23 million in 2015. According to the report rising house prices could partially explain the decline in the number of first time buyers taking out a mortgage, although other economic factors will play a role. From the 1980s until the early 2000s there were typically between 400,000 and 600,000 loans to first time buyers each year. However, in 2003 there was a 31% decline and then in 2008 there was a further 47% decrease, the largest in the series, as the economic downturn affected the housing market. In recent years the number of first time buyers has been recovering, although numbers fell in 2015 and the levels remain below those seen before 2003 and the reduction in the numbers of first time buyers has subsequently had an impact on the age of home owners. In 1991, 67% of the 25 to 34 age group were home owners. By the financial year ending 2014, this had declined to 36%. There were also reductions in home ownership over the same period for the 16 to 24 age group from 36% to 9% and for the 35 to 44 age group from 78% to 59%. By contrast, home ownership has increased among older age groups. Another changing aspect of the housing market is the percentage of purchase price being paid as… Continue reading
Over 200,000 homes lie empty in England, new research shows
There are 203,596 long term empty homes in England valued at £38 billion, but the amount varies depending on location, new research has found. London has the most number of homes empty for six months or more at 21,000 worth almost £12.4 billion while Bradford has more empty homes than any other town or city outside London, with over 4,000 sitting empty, totalling nearly £400 million. One of the most deprived boroughs, Newham, has the worst problem in London with 1,318 unoccupied properties, according to the research from property crowd funding platform Property Partner . But there has been an 84% drop in long-term vacant homes in Manchester over a decade, according to the research which used figures from the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG). The analysis looked at long-term vacant dwellings in England between 2005 and 2015, and then estimated the total value of this vacant real estate for towns and cities as well as London. Overall, in the past decade, the number of long-term vacant homes in England has been reducing. In 2005, there were 313,616 but by 2015 that had dropped by around a third to 203,596. Manchester has seen the number of empty homes plummet by more than 84%, from 10,059 long-term vacant dwellings in 2005 to 1,599 a decade later while in Bradford there has been a rise of 7% in the past decade to a total of 4,154 empty homes. On a regional basis West Yorkshire, which includes Bradford, Calderdale, Kirklees, Leeds and Wakefield, has the highest number of long term empty properties at 12,292, an estimated £1.4 billion worth of potential homes that could be occupied. Newham has the most empty properties at 1,318 in all 33 boroughs in London with the total value standing at almost £470 million. Meanwhile, Kensington and Chelsea’s long term vacant housing stock is valued at a £1.7 billion while Harrow in the north west of London has just 97 dwellings which have been unoccupied for over six months and unsurprisingly, the smallest borough the City of London has just 44. Only three boroughs, Kensington and Chelsea, Haringey and Lewisham, have seen increases in the number of vacant dwellings over the decade while Wandsworth has seen a fall of more than 90% from 3,044 in 2005 to just 263 in 2015. ‘These figures reveal a shocking waste of opportunity. Over a decade ago, the law changed giving councils the power to seize empty homes through Compulsory Purchase Orders and rent them back out to tenants, if they lay vacant for more than two years,’ said Dan Gandesha, Property Partner chief executive officer. ‘But we still find not enough being done in many parts of the country. This is nothing short of a scandal. To be fair, some towns and cities are getting to grips with the problem of long-term vacant properties,’ he pointed out. Yet if just half of the current empty homes could be brought to market, it would go a long… Continue reading
London property market avoids usual seasonal lending dip
The usual seasonal dip in home lending in the first quarter of the year didn’t seem to happen in London as the latest data shows borrowing up quarter on quarter and year on year. The data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders shows that home buyers in London borrowed £7.1 billion in the first three months of 2016, up 6% quarter on quarter and 41% on a year ago. They took out 21,400 loans, down 2% on the previous quarter but up 20% compared to the first quarter 2015. First time buyers borrowed £2.9 billion, down 7% on the fourth quarter 2015 but up 19% on the first quarter last year. This equated 10,700 loans, down 10% quarter on quarter but up 3% year on year. Home movers borrowed £4.2 billion, up 18% quarter on quarter and 63% compared to a year ago. This equated to 10,600 loans, up 8% quarter on quarter and 43% compared to the first quarter of 2015. Remortgage activity totalled £4 billion, up 4% on the fourth quarter 2015 and 36% compared to a year ago. This came to 13,500 loans, up 2% quarter on quarter and 21% compared to a year ago. ‘The usual seasonal dip in lending in the first quarter of the year didn't seem to impact London as strongly as the UK overall, mainly due to a strong uptick in home mover activity. Remortgage lending also performed well resulting in the highest first quarter remortgage levels in the capital since 2009,’ said Paul Smee, director general of the CML. ‘The housing market in Greater London has some unique characteristics compared to the rest of the UK such as more first time buyers, but lower overall levels of home ownership,’ he pointed out. ‘Affordability and the supply of housing remain critical factors for the London market, and we will be pleased to work with the new mayor and his deputy on how to deliver appropriate strategy over his term of office,’ he added. The data also shows that quarter on quarter affordability metrics for first time buyers show that the amount borrowed increased to £248,047 compared to the UK average of £130,500, from £243,746, but this was offset by a rise in the total household income of borrowers to £62,508 compared to the UK average of £40,000, from £61,155 meaning the median income multiple remained virtually unchanged from 3.94 to 3.93. London home movers saw a similar trend to £338,500 to the UK average of £172,295, from £315,995 the previous quarter, and household income increased to £91,862 on average compared to £56,104 UK-wide, from £84,313 meaning the income multiple decreased slightly from 3.87 to 3.83. The proportion of monthly gross income home buyers are spending on capital and interest repayments was 19.0%, which was the lowest level since the CML began tracking this metric in 2005. The number of remortgage loans was the highest first quarter figure since 2009, and the highest value… Continue reading
