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House and rent prices set to soar in the UK, outlook report suggests

House prices in the UK are set to soar by 50% and rental prices by over a quarter by 20025, according to an outlook report from two key real estate organisations. At the same time the number of households renting is set to rise by 9% while home ownership will fall by 7%, says the analysis from the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA) and the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA). Other predictions for the next decade included in the report are that buying a house will continue to get further out of reach for many and drastic action is needed to fix what it calls ‘a broken housing market’. With the average house price currently around £280,000, the ARLA and NAEA Housing 2025 report, compiled with CEBR, predicts house prices will reach an average price of £419,000. It’s even worse news for those living in London where house prices are expected to nearly double in the next decade, rising from £515,000 to £931,000. For those planning to enter the rental market in the next few years, rents are predicted to increase by 27% from a current UK average of £134 per week to £171 in 2025. Again, those living in London will be worse off as they’ll need to pay 34% extra in rent per week by 2025, an increase from the current average of £234, up to £314. Lower home ownership rates amongst the working age population and the ageing of the baby boom generation will continue to drive a decline in the proportion of UK households that own their own home, the report also suggest. Currently around 62% of the working population owns their own home and that could fall to 55% in the next decade. The report says that a declining home ownership rate will boost demand for rental properties, and drive house prices up. The Housing 2025 report also predicts the proportion of private renters in the UK will increase from 20% of households in 2015, to nearly 29% by 2025. ‘Buying and renting a home is a giant step, and is out of reach for many. Rent costs are already growing at a rate that people are struggling to keep up with, and they’re due to become even less sustainable over the next decade, particularly when the new landlord tax sets in, which will put off many would be landlords from entering the market,’ said David Cox, ARLA managing director. ‘If we’re to see the property market lifted out of its current state, we need to help the rental market from top down as well as bottom up, ensuring landlords are not penalised for their choice of income, and they can in turn give tenants the best possible price and service they deserve,’ he added. According to Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director, ongoing house price inflation, combined with low wage inflation, tighter lending restrictions and… Continue reading

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Sales and prices in Canada still rising but market is balanced, says CREA

Home sales in Canada increased by 1.8% month on month in November with the number of new listings also rising, up 3.1% compared with October, the latest index figures shows. Prices also increased, up by 10.2% year on year but this figure is affected by prices in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto as when they are excluded the annual price growth is 3.4%. The data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) also shows that year on year sales were up 10.9% and overall the housing market remains balanced. There was a fairly even split between the number of markets where sales posted a monthly increase and those where sales declined. The national increase was again led by monthly sales gains in the lower mainland of British Columbia and in the Greater Toronto Area. Sales activity was down sharply in the Calgary region compared to what were historically high levels posted prior to the collapse in oil prices while the number of newly listed homes rose 3.1% led by the Lower Mainland, Calgary, Edmonton, Kingston and Ottawa. ‘Recently announced changes to mortgage regulations will likely boost sales activity in the short term, as buyers jump off the fence to beat the changes before they take effect next year,’ said CREA president Pauline Aunger. Meanwhile, CREA chief economist Gregory Klump pointed out that changes to mortgage regulations taking effect in the middle of February next year are aimed at cooling the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto housing markets. ‘Minimum down payments will be going up for homes that sell for more than half a million dollars, so larger more expensive housing markets will be affected most. Unfortunately, the regulatory changes will also cause unintended collateral damage to housing markets beyond Toronto and Vancouver, including places that are facing economic headwinds from the collapse in oil prices,’ he explained. The national sales to new listings ratio eased to 57.3% in November compared to 58% in October. A sales to new listings ratio between 40% and 60% is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively. The ratio was within this range in slightly fewer than half of all local housing markets in November. Of the remainder, more markets recorded a ratio above 60% than fell below 40%. Markets where demand is tight relative to supply are located almost exclusively in British Columbia and Ontario. The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. There were 5.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2015, down from the 5.5 months recorded in October and the lowest level in nearly six years. The national figure is being pulled lower by increasing market tightness in British Columbia and Ontario, according to the index. A… Continue reading

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Survey reveals satisfaction in UK rental sector with more families renting

The private rented sector in the UK has entered a more settled periods with over 80% of tenants satisfied with their landlords and more families renting homes, new research shows. The sector has seen some shifting demographics and overall satisfaction levels remain high, according to the latest survey from Paragon Mortgages, undertaken by BDRC Continental. It found that an increasing proportion of those making a home in the sector are couples with children who now make up 21% and couples at 29%. In addition to this 87% of those surveyed consider the rental sector to be their home and the average length of time spent living in a rented home currently stands at 12 years and 41% of landlords reported an increase in tenant demand in the third quarter of the year. Alongside a shortage of housing stock nationally, one factor driving this change is ever improving standards in the sector and 81% of those surveyed said they were ‘satisfied’ with their landlord while 66% of respondents considered their rented home to be either ‘good’ or ‘very good’ value for money. ‘The message coming through in this survey is that, for many people, the private rented sector is an increasingly attractive option over the long term,’ said John Heron, director of mortgages at Paragon. ‘This in many ways reflects the ongoing issue of affordability in the housing market, simultaneously however, competition and best practice are driving higher standards in the sector, making it a more attractive proposition for both individuals and families,’ he explained. ‘This data underscores the value of the PRS to the UK’s housing market. The UK’s PRS still has some way to go to before it catches up with its counterparts in Europe, but higher tenant satisfaction with both standards and affordability, show that there is room for increased growth in this sector,’ he added. Continue reading

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