Shows
Property asking prices in Ireland rebound at start of 2016
The residential property market in Ireland is set to rebound in 2016 as price momentum has already been growing in the first quarter of the year, according to the latest survey report. But Dublin is likely to lag behind the rest of the country according to the latest house price survey from MyHome.ie. The data shows that having declined towards the end of 2015, asking prices for newly listed properties for sale rose by 2.1% nationally and by 0.9% in Dublin in the first quarter of 2016, the first gain in Dublin since the first half of 2015 and follows two quarters where prices declined marginally. The report predicts Irish house price inflation will register another solid gain of close to 5% in 2016, with the rest of the country leading Dublin, due to affordability constraints in the capital. The mix adjusted asking price for new sales nationally is €220,000, an increase of €5,000 compared to the final quarter of 2015 while the corresponding figure for Dublin is €315,000, an increase of €2,600. The author of the report, Conall MacCoille, chief economist at Davy, said a key factor supporting house prices this year will be a tighter housing market and he pointed out that the stock of properties listed for sale on the MyHome website in the first quarter fell to a fresh low of 21,650, down 6% on the year. ‘Despite popular opinion, the immediate impact of the Central Bank lending rules was to make it easier to buy as sellers anticipated the slowdown in Dublin house prices and decided to bring their properties to the market in 2015,’ said MacCoille. ‘This won’t be repeated this year while housing supply in the capital is likely to pick up less sharply through the summer months. This is because the ambitious goals set under the last government’s Construction 2020 strategy are unlikely to be attained with no stable coalition yet formed for the new Dail. Overall, home building levels look set to remain depressed for some time and while this will support Irish house prices, it will hurt activity levels,’ he added. The report’s analysis of the Property Price Register indicates that Dublin and the commuter belt counties last year accounted for 75% of transactions that exceeded €220,000, the threshold below which lenders require a 10% deposit. Of the 48, 374 residential property market transactions recorded in 2015, just 35% or 16,893 exceeded €220,000. Of these Dublin accounted for 60% or 9,987. Put another way 59% of Dublin transactions exceeded the €220,000 threshold, whereas outside of the commuter counties just 17% of transactions, or 4,300, exceeded that mark. ‘The Central Bank mortgage lending rules have prevented households from reacting to the lack of housing supply by taking on ever more highly leveraged loans and bidding up house prices further. However our analysis shows this has been mainly a Dublin/commuter belt phenomenon where the lack of housing supply is most severe and affordability… Continue reading
US holiday home market cooled in 2016, but still second best sales in a decade
Holiday home sales in the United States cooled off in 2015 but remained at the second highest amount in nearly a decade, new research shows. The survey report from the National Association of Realtors also shows that investment purchases increased for the first time in five years. And mirroring the strong price growth seen throughout the US, the median sales price of both holiday and investment homes surged in 2015. They Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey, covering existing and new home transactions in 2015, found that holiday home sales last year declined to an estimated 920,000, down 18.5% from their most recent peak level of 1.13 million in 2014. Investment home sales in 2015 jumped 7% to an estimated 1.09 million from 1.02 million in 2014. Owner occupied purchases jumped 15.9% to 3.74 million last year from 3.23 million in 2014, the highest level since 2007. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, while holiday homes sales took a sizeable step back in 2015 they still came in at the second highest amount since 2006. ‘Baby boomers at or near retirement continue to propel the demand for second homes, although headwinds softened the overall volume of vacation sales last year,’ he said. ‘The expanding pool of buyers amidst a dwindling number of bargain priced properties led to tighter supply and fewer sales and caused the price of vacation homes to rise. Furthermore, the turbulence that hit the financial markets the second half of the year likely seized some would-be buyers' available cash,’ he added. The median sales price of both vacation and investment homes soared in 2015. For holiday homes at $192,000 it was up 28% from $150,000 in 2014. The median investment home sales price was $143,500, up 15.3% from $124,500 a year ago. According to Yun, many of the metro areas with the strongest price appreciation in 2015 were in the South, the most popular destination for vacation buyers, and particularly in several Florida markets. While increased buyer demand contributed to the run-up in prices, it also likely squeezed less affluent households looking to purchase vacation properties. Holiday home sales accounted for 16% of all transactions in 2015, down from 21% in 2014 but still the second highest share since the survey was first conducted in 2003. The portion of investment sales remained unchanged from a year ago at 19% and owner occupied purchases increased to 65% from 60% in 2014. ‘Despite a smaller share of distressed properties coming onto the market, investment purchases reversed course in 2015 after declining for four straight years. Steadily increasing home prices and strong rental demand appear to be giving more individual investors assurance that purchasing real estate will diversify their portfolios and generate additional income if they decide to rent out the home,’ Yun said. The survey found that in addition to longer term rentals, investors are most likely to attempt to and rent their properties for less than… Continue reading
UK prime country house market affected by stamp duty change in first quarter of 2016
Prime country house prices in the UK increased by 0.3% on average in the first quarter of 2016, taking annual growth to 2.4%, down from a high of 5.2% in 2014. The easing of price growth since 2014 reflects a greater sensitivity to pricing from buyers in the prime market following successive increases in stamp duty that culminated in the changes introduced in December 2014. The details from the latest prime country house index from Knight Frank also shows that homes under £1 million have outperformed other sectors, rising by over 4% annually. Sales volumes in the first three months of 2016 were up by nearly a quarter year on year and Knight Frank forecasts price growth of 3% across the prime country market in 2016. This first quarter of the year has probably been affected by the announcement in November 2015 that buy to let investors and those purchasing second homes would be subject to an extra 3% on the rate of stamp duty from April 2016, the index report explains. It says that the November announcement has acted as a catalyst for some buyers looking to forestall a higher tax bill. This contributed to a notable rise in activity in the first three months of 2016, with Knight Frank figures showing a 24% rise in sales volumes across the prime country market compared to the corresponding period of 2015. During this time, activity has primarily been concentrated on the sub-£1 million market, boosted further by a growing economy and continued low interest and mortgage rates. As a result this sector experienced the strongest price growth. In contrast, homes worth £5 million or more saw values fall by 2.7% over the same period, with the higher transactional costs increasingly factored into pricing. With Knight Frank forecasting price growth of 3% on average this year, the report also says that key town and city locations are likely to outperform, as the trend for urban living continues to grow and more Londoners make the move out of the capital. In the short term, however, uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the European Union referendum could have an impact on the market, causing some buyers to adopt a wait and see approach until after the vote, the report concludes. Continue reading
