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European commercial real estate investment up 2.5% in second quarter of 2016
Commercial real estate investment remained strong across Europe in the second quarter of 2016 totalling €54.0 billion, up 2.5% on the previous quarter and 30.4% on the 10 year average, new research shows. However, overall activity fell short compared to the second quarter of 2015 with the office sector having the strongest quarter, seeing an 8.3% increase on the first three months of 2016, driven by a particularly strong performance in the Nordic region. The research from CBRE also points out that despite uncertainty in the UK caused by the European Union referendum, sentiment remained strong in other European markets and investment levels were stable year on year. Investment volumes in France and Sweden, Europe’s third and fourth largest markets, were particularly resilient. The data shows that over the last year investment in these markets has grown 32% and 20% respectively. Indeed, second quarter results in both France and Sweden were boosted by buoyant office sectors. Ireland also performed extremely strongly, transacting a record €2.3 billion of commercial property deals in the second quarter of 2016, more than double that of the same quarter last year, although the sale of the Blanchardstown Centre for close to €1 billion closed during this quarter. Poland followed suit, transacting €1.5 billion in the second quarter, over three times the level recorded in the same period last year. But Germany showed decreased levels of investment in the second quarter, which is likely connected to a lack of availability of stock in the core markets, which dampened the European total. Core property in Germany remains highly regarded as a safe haven and sentiment remains strong. The UK also performed less strongly than its continental European counterparts in the run up to the Brexit vote although strong fundamentals continue to underpin the UK market. The recent depreciation of sterling, coupled with low interest rates, has attracted the attention of overseas investors to the UK, and with the spread between bond yields and property being the widest on record, the fundamentals of UK and continental European real estate remain attractive. ‘Whilst investors have reacted cautiously to Brexit, the market fundamentals remain strong and investors still have significant capital to deploy. The uncertainty means that many investors will watch and see how the market develops before deciding how to act, said Jonathan Hull, managing director of Investment Properties EMEA at CBRE. ‘However, sentiment is already improving as the UK enters a more stable political environment and there are signs that the market is responding positively to this,’ he added. According to Miles Gibson, head of UK research at CBRE, the EU referendum risk was undoubtedly one factor affecting investment activity in the second quarter. ‘But instability in the financial markets earlier in the year was similarly important in causing investors to be more risk averse,’ he added. Continue reading
Caution due to Brexit likely to affect UK housing market in short term
Caution is likely to affect sales in the mainstream housing market in the UK as a result of the decision to leave the European Union but low interest rates will underpin prices, according to a new analysis. The market is seeing initial caution, particularly among discretionary buyers, and this likely to curtail housing market activity as buyers’ willingness to commit to a major purchase weakens. Over the medium term, the analysis from real estate firm Savills, suggests that sentiment will improve but also fluctuate as negotiations to leave the EU proceed. It also suggests that buyer sentiment is likely to lead to lower sales volumes in the short term. Also, the possibility of tighter lending could pull transactions numbers further down from recent UK highs of 1.3 million a year. ‘However, at this stage, we do not expect sales volumes to decline to post credit crunch lows,’ said Lucian Cook, director of residential research as Savills. The report points out that so far it has been business as usual for lending. ‘Should downside risks persist, there is a possibility that lenders tighten lending criteria. If stricter borrowing rules come into play, first time buyers and second steppers will be the most affected,’ Cook explained. He believes that low interest rates will underpin house prices with the prospect of a cut in base rates and this may present opportunities for those on low loan to value mortgages. Overall, house price growth is likely to slacken as a result of weaker demand in the short to medium term but looking ahead, Cook said that the possibility of a slower economy could have an impact on price growth. ‘We do not rule out the possibility of price falls in weaker markets. Low levels of house building has resulted in a market that is fundamentally undersupplied. This has not changed,’ he added. The analysis report also points out that the short term impact on sentiment is also likely to vary geographically and between different buyer groups, in part dependent on the level of opposition to or support for Brexit. That would potentially indicate more caution in the domestic markets of London and among first-time buyers and second steppers but less among mature home owners. ‘While this short term sentiment effect is likely to take longer to feed into the house price indices, we would expect the first indications of this impact to come from consumer confidence surveys and mortgage approvals,’ Cook pointed out. ‘At this stage, it appears that the downside risks to the housing market are milder than the events that led to the 2008 financial crisis. However, political and economic uncertainty is likely to curtail housing market activity initially as discretionary buyers exercise caution,’ he said. ‘The potential for lenders to tighten lending criteria presents a longer term risk to market activity, especially among first time buyers and second steppers. This could mean that UK housing transactions, which reached a post credit crunch high… Continue reading
Foreclosed homes in US increased in value almost twice as much as others
Homes that were foreclosed during the housing crisis in the United States have gained almost twice as much value as other homes, according to a new analysis. But the original owners of those homes have not benefited from that recovery as low end homes were much more likely to be foreclosed, the report from real estate firm Zillow shows. It explains that during the run-up to the housing bubble, many low income earners bought homes, and the home ownership rate rose from about 65% in the middle of the 1990s to almost 70% in 2006. However, when home values crashed in 2007, millions of home owners had to walk away, abandoning their initial investment and missing the opportunity to gain equity as home values recovered. It also points out that the rich-poor divide is growing in the US. In 2000 high income households made an average of six times as much income as the lowest third of households. In 2015, the top third made nearly seven times as much as the lowest third. Of all foreclosed homes, some 46.7% were among the least expensive third of homes. Only 16.6% were among the most expensive third. Foreclosed homes gained value faster than other homes, and in many markets, are more valuable now than they've ever been. Since the lowest point in the housing bust, the average US home has risen 22% in value, while the average foreclosed home has risen 39% in value. The report suggests that in many cases, investors bought foreclosed homes and converted them into rental properties, benefiting from the recovery as home values bounced back. The percentage of single family homes being rented out has risen from 13% to 19% over the past decade. ‘Income inequality is an important topic in the US right now, because the gap between the richest and poorest Americans is growing,’ said Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell. ‘Many lower income Americans lost their homes during the foreclosure crisis, forcing them to pay ever increasing rents and locking them out of the benefits of the housing market recovery,’ she added. Meanwhile, a separate report from the National Association of Realtors shows that at a national level, housing affordability is down from a year ago as higher prices continue to outpace household income growth. Housing affordability declined from a year ago in April pushing the NAR index from 167.5 to 162.4. The median sales price for a single family home sold in April in the US was $233,700 up 6.3% from a year ago. Regionally, all four regions saw declines in affordability from a year ago. The Midwest had the largest decline of 5.6%, the South had a decline in the affordability index of 3.4%, followed by the West with 2%. The Northeast had the smallest dip in affordability at 1%. By region, affordability is down in all regions from the previous month. The Midwest with a fall of 6.2% had the biggest decline, followed by the South and West… Continue reading
