News
Irish property prices fall for second month in a row
Residential property prices in Ireland fell by 0.4% in February, the second monthly decline in a row, the latest index data shows. The fall last month comes on the back of a 1.4% decline in January amid concerns that the country’s real estate recovery could be stalling. In Dublin, the decline was more pronounced, with average prices falling by 0.7%, according to the data from the Central Statistics Office. However, despite this fall, residential property prices remained up 14.9% on an annual basis. In Dublin property prices were still 21.4% higher than in February 2014. A breakdown of the figures shows that Dublin house prices fell by 1% in February whilst Dublin apartment prices increased by 2%. However, a spokesman said that it should be noted that the sub-indices for apartments are based on low volumes of observed transactions and consequently suffer from greater volatility than other series. In the rest of Ireland residential property prices were unchanged in February. However, prices were still up 8.2% compared with February 2014. At national level residential property prices were 38.7% lower than their peak level in 2007. Dublin house prices were 37.6% lower than their peak, Dublin apartment prices were 43.3% lower than their peak and Dublin residential property prices overall were 39.3% lower than their highest level. Outside of Dublin residential property prices were 41.9% lower than their highest level in 2007. ‘With prices continuing to rise more quickly than earnings affordability constraints are beginning to have an impact. This has removed some of the heat that was evident in the market in the middle of last year,’ said John McCartney of Savills. ‘Agents are now reporting that buyers are no longer in a frenzy to buy for fear that prices will run beyond their means. This is a very positive development as expectations of rapid price growth can become self-fulfilling and can quickly lead to overheating,’ he added. It is a welcome slowdown in Irish house price inflation rather than a collapse in prices, according to Conall MacCoille, chief economist at Davy Stockbrokers, who said at over five times average incomes, house prices no longer look cheap. ‘This slowdown is not surprising or undesirable. Ideally, Irish house prices will now rise in line with nominal wages so affordability is not stretched further,’ he explained, adding that it was too early to say what kind of dampening effect new central bank restrictions on mortgage lending will have. The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), an independent think-tank partly funded by the Irish government, said that while the measures may slow down house price growth, this could come at the expense of rising rents and fewer houses being supplied amid major shortages of supply in Dublin. Continue reading
US home prices growing at fastest rate for a year
Existing home sales increased modestly in the United States last month but prices are growing at their fastest pace for a year, the latest index data shows. Total existing home sales, which are completed transactions that include single family homes, town homes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.25% in February and are 4.7% higher than a year ago and above year on year totals for the fifth consecutive month. The data from the National Association of Realtors also shows that the median existing home price for all housing types in February was $202,600, some 7.5% above February 2014. This marks the 36th consecutive month of year on year price gains and the largest since last February when it was 8.8%. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, although February sales showed modest improvement, there’s been some stagnation in the market in recent months. ‘Insufficient supply appears to be hampering prospective buyers in several areas of the country and is hiking prices to near unsuitable levels,’ he said. ‘Stronger price growth is a boon for home owners looking to build additional equity, but it continues to be an obstacle for current buyers looking to close before rates rise. Severe below freezing winter weather likely had an impact on sales as more moderate activity was observed in the Northeast and Midwest compared to other regions of the country,’ Yun explained. The data shows that total housing inventory at the end of February increased 1.6% but remains 0.5% below a year ago. For the second month in a row unsold inventory is at a 4.6 month supply at the current sales pace. The share of first time buyers was 29% in February, up slightly from 28% in January and the first increase since November 2014. First time buyers represented 28% of all buyers in February 2014. All cash sales were 26% of transactions in February, down from 27% in January and down considerably from a year ago when it was 35%. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 14% of homes in February, down from 17% in January and 21% in February 2014. Some 67% of investors paid cash in February. Distressed sales, that is foreclosures and short sales, amounted to 11% of sales in February, unchanged for the third consecutive month and down from 16% a year ago. Some 8% of February sales were foreclosures and 3% were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 17% below market value in February compared to 15% in January, while short sales were discounted 15% compared to 12% the previous month. ‘Investor sales are trending downward due to the continued rise in prices and fewer bargains available from distressed properties coming onto the market,’ said Chris Polychron, NAR president. He added that real estate agents in areas popular with foreign buyers, such as South Florida and the West Coast, are reporting tempered demand from international clients who typically pay in cash and this… Continue reading
Residential rents in Scotland rising at slowest pace for over two years
Scottish rents have increased by just 1.1% in the year to February 2015, their slowest pace for over two years, according to the latest buy to let index. But despite this slower and more affordable pace of rent growth in Scotland, the financial health of tenants has declined over the same period, and February saw the highest proportion of late rent since December 2012. The Scotland buy to let index from letting agent network Your Move, also shows that the average residential rent across the country has increased only £6 in the last year, reaching £537 per month in February. This represents a significant downtrend in annual rent rises, which peaked at 4.3% a year previously in February 2014 equal to a £21 annual boost in cash terms. On a monthly basis, Scottish rental prices have climbed a modest 0.2% since January, but this marks the first monthly rent rise witnessed since November 2014, as the market had slowed down. ‘Such an incremental rise in Scottish rents over the past year shows admirable stability in the private rented sector. Despite high demand for homes to let in the face of the current housing shortage, rent inflation in the lettings market has remained remarkably affordable for tenants,’ said Brian Moran, area lettings director at Your Move. ‘After cruising along on a pretty even keel until late 2012, we then saw steep rent rises stack up against tenants as the abolition of tenancy fees in Scotland knocked the market out of kilter. The Scottish private rented sector has subsequently been on quite a rollercoaster ride, but rent growth has its feet firmly on the ground once again, and is making steady strides forward,’ he explained. ‘But while improvements in the affordability of the lettings market mean that tenants are able to keep up with rent rises, other economic factors are holding them back from making solid financial progress and continuing to drag tenants into the red,’ he added. A breakdown of the figures shows that rents are now higher than a year ago in three out of five regions of Scotland. Edinburgh and the Lothians have experienced the strongest annual rent growth, with prices climbing 2.5% in the 12 months to February 2015. This is closely followed by Glasgow and Clyde where rents are up 2.3% year on year. The East of Scotland saw a 2.2% annual rise in average rents, setting a new record of £530 per month. However, rents have fallen in two regions in the past year. The Highlands and Islands experienced the biggest annual drop in average rents, falling 1.6% while monthly rents in the South of Scotland are 1.5% lower than in February 2014. On a monthly basis, rents have increased in just two out of five regions of Scotland. For the first time in eight months, rents in the South rose on a monthly basis, up 1.3% since January 2015 to £489. In the East of Scotland rents climbed… Continue reading
