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Monthly landlord survey reveals effect of general election on private rented sector
Three quarters of letting agents are concerned that proposals for the creation of three year tenancies in England and Wales put forward in the run up to this week’s UK general election, a new report reveals. Members of the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA) believe that the proposal put forward by the Labour party will see landlords exit the market and reduce supply. However, over a third of ARLA agents agree the Conservatives’ pledge to build 200,000 new starter homes will benefit the private rental sector the most. The report comes at a time when demand for rental accommodation was down in March, whilst supply rises. Some 72% of ARLA letting agents said three year tenancies, with a cap on rents will see landlords pull out the market, and lead to a decrease in the supply of rental property landlords in the North West and East Midlands most likely to pull out the market, with 84% of ARLA agents in these regions expressing concern. As well as seeing a reduction in landlords and therefore supply of rental housing, 74% believe the proposed three year tenancy agreements with rent controls and strict rules to make it more difficult to evict tenants will not actually benefit tenants at all, up from 69% in February. Meanwhile, 37% of ARLA agents agree that the Conservatives’ pledge to build 200,000 new starter homes offered at 20% discount to first time buyers would be best for the private rented sector. This will enable a segment of the current British renting population to get on the housing market, freeing up more properties for renting, helping to ease supply and demand. The March report also shows how the upcoming election is having an effect on the current levels of supply and demand for the private rented sector, as people hold out to see the outcome. Demand was down by 10% in March with just 36 house hunters recorded, down from 40 in February. Supply is heading in the other direction, with a rise in the number of properties managed per branch at 192 properties in March, up from 184 the previous month. Rents continue to increase for some, as 32% ARLA agents said that rents increased between February and March, the same increase as the previous month. ‘The vast majority of ARLA letting agents are worried that Labour’s proposed three year tenancies with strict caps on rents will only cause the gap between supply and demand to widen,’ said David Cox, managing director of ARLA. ‘Flexible tenancies are what makes the sector work, if this changes, some landlords will be forced to exit the market and tenants are likely to automatically incur rent hikes and feel driven to stay in agreements for longer before getting on the housing ladder; thus not freeing up rental properties for other tenants,’ he explained. ‘The proposals are aimed at reducing opportunities for landlords to raise rents and to create stability for tenants. However, Labour’s proposals aren’t… Continue reading
House building land prices fall for first time since 2012, latest index shows
After several quarters of slowing growth, the average value of green field residential development land in England and Wales fell in the first quarter of the year, the first decline since December 2012. Prices fell by 1.8% in the first three months of 2015, taking the annual change to -0.5%. However the picture across the country is more mixed with the land index from real estate consultants Knight Frank showing that development land prices in prime central London also stalled in the first three months of the year. Land values in price central London remained unchanged in the first quarter, the first time they have not risen since the index began in 2012. But on an annual basis, prime central London development land prices were up 18.5% in the first quarter. This slowdown is the result of a gradual slowing in price growth over several quarters, according to Grainne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank. ‘Across the country, many house builders have been replenishing their pipeline of land over the last 12 to 18 months, both consented and strategic. For strategic land, they have started guiding it through the planning system. As such, demand for consented land has eased. Sites which are oven-ready and perfectly located are still attracting interest however,’ she explained. She pointed out that there has also been a notable trend emerging of an increased appetite for strategic land among larger house builders as this can result in higher margins. But on a short term basis, the development land market, much like the housing market, has also been affected by the upcoming election, with some developers and house builders deferring decisions in recent months until the outcome of the election is clear. ‘All the parties have pledged to boost housing supply in the years to come, through a variety of schemes from brownfield regeneration funds to support for small to medium sized builders,’ said Gilmore. ‘A theme that is set to continue through the election and the rest of the year is the increased cost of building. Material and labour costs continue to rise, and this is also putting downward pressure on land prices,’ she added. Continue reading
Property prices in Australian cities holding steady and up almost 8% year on year
Residential property values across Australia’s capital cities increased by 0.8% in April, down from the 1.4% increase recorded in March, the latest index data shows. Overall values increased over the past month across every capital city except Canberra where values showed a 1.5% drop over the month, according to the CoreLogic RP home value index. CoreLogic RP Data head of research, Tim Lawless, said that despite the slower month on month reading, the annual rate of growth has seen a slight rebound, with dwelling values now 7.9% higher over the past 12 months across the combined capital city index. ‘Annually, the rate of capital gain has slowed since April last year, however, since the February rate cut the Sydney and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne housing markets have caught a second wind which is reflected in the higher rate of capital gain as well as the very strong auction results and rapid rate of sale for properties sold via private treaty,’ he explained. ‘Despite the slight annual rate of growth upswing, capital gains remain lower than their annual peak recorded in April last year when dwelling values were rising at the rate of 11.5% per annum across the combined capitals index,’ he added. According to the April results, capital city dwelling values have been trending higher over the past 35 months, recording a cumulative increase of 25.3% between the end of May 2012 and April 2015. ‘While the combined capitals trend of dwelling value growth has been substantial, the rate of growth across the Sydney housing market stands head and shoulders above the other capital cities over the cycle to date,’ said Lawless. He pointed out that Sydney dwelling values are now 40.2% higher relative to the May 2012 trough. ‘If you factor in the previous 2009/2010 phase of growth, Sydney values are now up 65.4% after the global financial crisis,’ he added. A breakdown of the figures show that Melbourne is the only other capital city that comes close to this measure where dwelling values are 52.3% higher post GFC. The next highest rate of growth is Darwin where values have moved 26.5% higher, followed by Canberra at 19.8%, Perth at 15.2%, Adelaide at 12.2%, Brisbane at 8% and Hobart at 1.2%. ‘While the headline growth figures remain strong it is clear that some markets are winding down. The rate of growth in Perth and Darwin has slowed substantially in line with the wind down of major infrastructure projects associated with the resources sector and the housing market in Canberra has also softened post federal election,’ Lawless said. The performance of houses versus apartments has shown some interesting trends of late. Detached homes are continuing to outperform the multi-unit sector, with capital city house values up 8.3% over the past year while unit values have risen by a lower 5.6%. This trend is more noticeable in the key growth markets of Sydney and Melbourne. Sydney house values are up 15.5% over the past year while… Continue reading
