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Election result hailed as positive for UK commercial property markets
The UK general election result should be positive for the country’s commercial property markets but the landslide in favour of the SNP in Scotland could result in uncertainty north of the border, according to experts. If the SNP push for another referendum on independence then uncertainty could creep into the markets north of the border, it is suggested. And a referendum on the UK’s position within the European Union could add to that. ‘There is good reason to now suppose the UK economy, that appeared to slow in the run-up to the election, can now resume a strengthening recovery. This will be good news for both the commercial leasing and investment markets,’ said James Roberts, chief economist of real estate firm Knight Frank. He believes there remains a great deal of political uncertainty that will influence but not derail the property market. ‘Firstly, the SNP’s overwhelming victory has put the existence of the Union back on the political agenda. Last year there was a brief slowdown in activity in the Scottish market in the run-up to the referendum, which may be replicated in a future poll. This comes with the caveat that some investors actually saw last year’s referendum as an opportunity to buy,’ he explained. ‘Secondly, a Conservative majority increases the chances of a referendum on European Union membership. If the prospect of Scottish independence caused a market slowdown, the idea of the UK leaving the EU will surely do the same, probably on a greater scale. Either a Tory backbench rebellion against the Bill or a vote sooner rather than later may be the best outcome,’ he pointed out. ‘Thirdly, the UK’s deficit remains large. If the financial markets suspect that not enough is being done to balance the books, sterling could fall in value. This will initially make UK commercial property look attractive to overseas money, but inflationary pressures would increase and bring closer the day that interest rates rise,’ he added. Over the next five years, the firm believes that this climate of political uncertainty will at times cause market confidence to drain away temporarily. ‘Some investors may decide to wait until after an upcoming referendum before buying; some occupiers might shelve expansion plans because a sudden fall or rise in sterling hits profits,’ said Roberts. ‘In short, we should expect the odd air pocket ahead, but overall the election outcome was probably much better for commercial property than one would have expected,’ he concluded. Miles Gibson, head of UK research at CBRE, also pointed out that the overall economic outlook remains favourable for markets. ‘Strong employment, low inflation, low interest rates and high levels of inward investment all bode well for the property sector,’ he said. But he believes that there remains, however, a question mark over EU membership, something ‘which bothers most of our clients immensely as they feel investment would suffer if we were to leave the EU’. The firm believes… Continue reading
Spanish property markets such as Marbella see recovery, new analysis shows
After seven years of stagnation the property market in Spain is experiencing an uptick in sales and prices have reached bottom, according to a new analysis report. With the Spanish economy improving, unemployment falling, tax revenue growing and a more stable banking system, lending figures are on the rise, says the analysis from Diana Morales Properties, an associate of international real estate firm Knight Frank. It points out that the typical mortgage lending rate dropped from 4.21% to 3.29% over the course of 2014 and this has fed through to buyer confidence. Andalucía and the Canary Islands have seen some of the strongest surges in mortgage lending, up 25% and 26% respectively month on month, compared to the national average of 14.2%. This renewed confidence and interest in Spanish real estate is most evident in Madrid and Barcelona where capital flows into both cities’ commercial markets topped €2.7 billion in 2014, the analysis says. It also points out that the return of large US investment funds has been notable but not just in Spain’s main cities. ‘The acquisition of Sotogrande by US based Cerberus and developments to the east and west of Marbella by other US funds, as well as the purchase of Monte Mayor golf club by Russian investors hint at the extent to which the recovery is gaining traction,’ it says. Marbella, a popular area with overseas buyers is building on a property market recovery that began in 2013 despite Spanish buyers failing to return in any significant number in 2014 and the Ukraine crisis impacting on the number of Russian buyers. There was strong demand from an increasingly diversified client base of Scandinavian, Benelux, French, Arabian and Moroccan buyers which added to the record tourist numbers lending a certain buoyancy to the local economy. Marbella and its surrounding municipalities of Estepona and Benahavis together recorded a 27.7% increase in property sales in 2014 compared with a year earlier. Marbella, however, outperformed its neighbours, by experiencing an 89% jump in property sales between 2008 and 2014 according to Spain’s Ministry of Public Works. Benahavis and Estepona, by comparison, recorded rises of 62.3% and 22.8% respectively over the same period. It also reveals that the amount of time properties spend on the market is dropping if realistically priced, while in some prime beachfront locations there is even a shortage of available homes, complete with waiting lists for specific property types. The analysis says that new bank repossessions remain and this has prompted the return of new construction that remains for the moment primarily focused on individual villas and small to medium sized developments of apartments and villa communities. Continue reading
UK property market set for further growth due to stable election result
House prices in the UK, especially the prime property market in London, are set to rise on the back of the Conservative win at the general election, according to property experts. London is likely to see sales surge as people who put off buying, particularly overseas buyers, now go ahead and make a decision with the possibility of a mansion tax evaporated. Indeed, according to Edward Heaton, of Heaton and Partners property search agency prime country house prices could rise by as much as 10% within weeks. ‘There will be bun fights in the next few weeks for the best houses which come to the market as confidence in the top-end of the regional market returns,’ he said. ‘For many operating in the prime property market, there is a palpable sense of relief at the election outcome as there were some genuine concerns about the possible impact of mansion tax tied in with the attack on non-doms proposed by Labour,’ he added. The result will bring stability to the markets, according to Michelle van Vuuren, managing director of residential development at Sotheby’s International Realty UK. The firm is already getting calls from would be international buyers. ‘The removal of the uncertainty that has clouded the last year of the coalition will allow developers to plan confidently for the medium term with a consistent economic policy. Having said that, we do hope to see the Tories come good on their annual pledge of 200,000 new homes and freeing up brownfield sites for development,’ she said. ‘Increasing the supply of homes is the only way to truly overcome the hurdles that the housing market places for the majority of buyers. At the top end, for the next five years at least, a cessation of the clamour for a mansion tax will see a number of transactions that have stalled to come back on line as certitude creeps back into the market. It is going to be an exciting time to be in the London market,’ she added. ‘Andrew Ellinas, director of central and north west London agency Sandfords, believes that confidence will return quickly and it is likely that there will be a significant late spring bounce in activity as those who have held back start to act. ‘London has established itself around the world as a safe and thriving place to invest and increased confidence will once again be restored and with that see the return of overseas investors. It has felt like the market was becalmed and now will steam ahead once again, with London prices that have been subdued steadily rising throughout the second half of the year,’ he pointed out. ‘My advice to those who have been thinking about selling, but awaiting political certainty, is to make a move now and beat the rush. The market has been challenged most recently by a lack of stock, but this is likely to change quite swiftly now, creating more competition for vendors. Take… Continue reading
