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Houses in areas of low unemployment in UK have seen biggest property rises
British home owners in local authorities with the lowest levels of unemployment have seen the value of their property rise by almost £65,000 since the trough of the last housing market cycle in 2009, new research shows. The average house price in the 20 local areas that recorded the lowest unemployment rate between 2009 and 2015 rose by 25%, or £64,783, according to new research by Lloyds Bank. In contrast, the 20 areas with the highest unemployment experienced an average house price increase of just £4,100 or 3%. The report says that there is a clear link between levels of unemployment and house price performance in recent years. Those areas with the lowest average levels of unemployment since 2009, as measured by the claimant count, have, on average, recorded bigger house price gains. For example, the 20 local authority districts with the lowest unemployment have experienced average house price rises of 25% since 2009 compared with an increase of 17% for Great Britain as a whole. The outperformance is more marked once the impact of London is removed from the calculations with Great Britain excluding London recording an 11% price increase. The capital has seen the biggest price gains in recent years but none of the lowest 20 unemployment areas are in Greater London. The position for the 10 areas with the lowest levels of unemployment is even more marked with an average house price rise of 28% for these areas since 2009, more than 60% higher than the Great Britain gain and 150% more than Great Britain excluding London. Hart and Winchester, which have had the lowest average unemployment rates since 2009, have recorded house price gains of 33% and 37% respectively in the last six years. Similarly, those areas with the highest levels of unemployment have typically under performed compared to the Great Britain average. The 20 areas with the highest levels of unemployment have recorded an average house price gain of 3%. Hull and Middlesbrough, the two areas with the highest unemployment, have seen house prices increase by only 2% and 1% respectively over the past six years. ‘There has been a very clear relationship between conditions in the local jobs market and house price performance during the period since the housing market downturn between 2007 and 2009,’ said Andy Hulme, Lloyds Bank mortgages director. ‘Those areas with low unemployment and high levels of employment have tended to record above average house price growth. Areas with high unemployment and relatively low employment have, on the other hand, typically under performed,’ he explained. ‘The past few years have underlined the importance of local economic health in determining house price behaviour. Other factors, however, are also key drivers of house price trends including the strength, or otherwise, of housing supply,’ he added. The 20 local areas with the highest employment rates have experienced average house price rises of 19% since 2009 compared with an increase of 17% for Great Britain as a whole,… Continue reading
Mortgage arrears and repossession downs in the UK, latest data shows
The proportion of UK mortgages in arrears or ending in repossession fell in the first quarter of this year, according to the latest figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders. A decline was experienced in all arrears bands, and across both owner occupier and buy to let lending. The total proportion of all mortgages with arrears equivalent to more than 2.5% of the mortgage balance was 1.03% at the end of the first quarter, down from 1.05% in the fourth quarter of 2014, and well down on the 1.24% recorded at the same time last year. In numerical terms, there were 113,900 loans in arrears. Of these, just 24,400 were in the most severe arrears band at more than 10% of balance, equating to 0.22% of all mortgages. This is the smallest number and proportion of mortgages in the most serious arrears band since the end of 2008. The proportion of mortgages resulting in repossession in the first quarter was 0.03%, down from 0.04% in the fourth quarter of 2014 and 0.06% in the first quarter of last year. The number of repossessions was 3,100, down from 4,200 in the fourth quarter of last year, and 6,400 in the first quarter of 2014. ‘Although complacency would be misplaced, the underlying picture continues to be one of improvement and a continuing reduction in mortgage arrears and repossessions,’ said CML director general Paul Smee. ‘The message remains the same: don't delay in contacting your lender if you are experiencing temporary payment problems, as lenders want to help you resolve them, and will only take possession of property as a last resort,’ he added. Meanwhile, the latest figures from the Finance and Leasing Association (FLA) show that the number of second charge mortgage repossessions fell 45.3% in the first three months of 2015, compared with the same period last year. ‘Second charge repossessions are continuing to fall as second charge lenders continue to do all they can to help customers in financial difficulty,’ said Fiona Hoyle, head of consumer credit at the FLA. Continue reading
Office rental growth hits record highs in South East of England
Vacancy rates across the South East of England office market are at their lowest since 2001, driving rental growth to hit record highs in towns across the region, new research shows. The M25 vacancy rate stood at 5.9% in the first three months of 2015 but this falls to 4.2% when only new and Grade A space is analysed, low by London, UK and global standards, says the data from the latest office leasing report from Knight Frank. It also shows that availability fell by 13% compared to a year ago, across all grades of stock, moving the market back towards the landlord’s favour. Following the re-election of a Conservative led Government and financial market rally, economic performance of the region is improving and there is an expectation of a further boost to demand, it points out. Strong investor demand and a lack of deliverable product is holding back stock volumes in the investment market, where we are seeing a hardening of yields across the spectrum, with investors increasingly factoring in likely rental growth during hold periods. Prime yields now stand at 5.00% NIY and the combination of weight of money and lack of product is expected to drive yields down further moving forward in 2015. ‘2015 has started positively supporting our view that take up in the M25 will be almost 30% ahead of 2014, and above the 10 year average,’ said Emma Goodford, head of national offices leasing team, Knight Frank. ‘Vacancy levels are heading towards crunch point in combination the market seeing rental growth across a growing number of key centres. In some cases rents are now at an all-time high- motivation for occupiers to identify and secure the best space now. The election has removed uncertainty and will drive demand,’ she added. According to Tim Smither, head of South East investment, Knight Frank, the investment market continues to strengthen, with prime yields standing at 5% NIY. ‘We expect this yield compression to continue for the rest of the year, driven by a combination of a lack of stock, significant levels of equity looking to be deployed and anticipated rental growth in most core markets,’ he said. Continue reading
