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Positive sentiment on future house price growth in UK slips to three year low
Household sentiment on future house price growth in the UK has slipped to a three year low with 23.7% believing that the value of their home increase over the last month. Some 4.4% believe that prices have fallen, according to the latest house price sentiment index from Knight Frank and Markit Economics with the reading falling from 61 to 59.7. Households in the North East perceived that the value of their home fell in June, the first time that households in any English region perceived house prices had fallen since August 2013. The future HPSI, which measures what households think will happen to the value of their property over the next year, fell to 67.7 in June from 70.3 in May. This is the lowest reading recorded by the index since August 2013. The gap between sentiment in the North and South of the UK is now wider than at any time since the inception of the index. But some 6.5% of UK households said they planned to buy a property in the next 12 months, up from 5.4% in May and the highest number since August 2015. ‘The decline in the future household sentiment index to a near three-year low coincides with growing uncertainty over the result of next week’s European Union referendum as the debates over the UK’s future step up a gear,’ said Gráinne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank. ‘The proportion of households who expect the value of their home to fall over the next 12 months rose to the highest level in nearly two years, but overall households still expect the value of their property to continue rising in the coming year, despite the uncertainty about the result of the vote,’ she explained. She also pointed out that the regional disparity in the index readings highlights the multi-speed housing market in the UK at present, with gap between sentiment in the North and the South widening to the biggest margin since the index began in 2009. Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, agreed that heightened political and economic uncertainty seems to have weighed on house price sentiment to some degree in June, with expectations for the year ahead slipping to the lowest since August 2013. However, he pointed out that the month to month easing in house price sentiment was relatively modest, suggesting that UK households perceived little fundamental change in property market conditions since May. ‘Instead, ultra-low mortgages, improving labour market conditions and little sign of impending interest rate rises all appear to have helped keep house price sentiment at an elevated level in comparison to the survey’s historical average,’ he added. Continue reading
Sales and prices falling in Hong Kong, latest analysis report shows
Residential sales increased by 2% month on month in Hong Kong in May, but transactions are down 11% year on year, the latest Land Registry figures show. But with developers offering deeper discounts and more incentives, a number of primary projects received a positive market response, according to the latest market analysis from international real estate firm Knight Frank. It points out that prices have dropped for seven consecutive months by a cumulative 11%, according to provisional figures from the Rating and Valuation Department. Mass residential prices led the decline, losing 11% in the period, while luxury residential prices dipped 8%. The report suggests that clouded by a potential US interest rate rise in June and abundant upcoming supply, residential land prices continued to edge down. A domestic site in Pak Shek Kok, Tai Po was sold last month for an accommodation value of HK$3,620 per square foot, down about 20% from eight months ago when the adjacent site was sold. However, the super luxury sector remained strong, indicated by a Shenzhen buyer’s acquisition of a 9,212 square foot luxury house at Gough Hill Road on The Peak for a reported HK$2.1 billion approximately, a record price for the city. Knight Frank expects more mainland buyers to return to the market in the future and points out that a number of primary projects are scheduled for release in June, hoping to reach the market before a possible US interest rate rise. ‘While the government restated in May the continued implementation of cooling measures, we do not consider the sales rebound in the past two months an indication of a general market recovery,’ the report says. ‘We maintain our forecast of a 5% to 10% drop in the luxury segment and up to a 10% drop in mass residential prices,’ it adds. Continue reading
Second step buyers might struggle for deposit moving from flats to homes
Almost half of second time buyers in the UK have no plans to save for a deposit to buy their next home as they believe the equity in their current property will pay for their deposit, new research shows. Some 44% plan to rely on equity but the growth in house prices has outpaced flats over the last 10 years potentially leaving buyers short when they look to move up the ladder, according to the study from price comparison site uSwitch. However, over the past decade, prices for terraced, detached and semi-detached properties have risen by 21% while flats have increased by 15% over the same time period. First time buyers often buy a flat and then look to move up to a house. The research found that the widest disparity in growth rates between flats and houses can be found in Preston where the difference is 16.5%, Colchester 10% and York 9%. At the other end of the spectrum, flat owners in Aberdeen, Wolverhampton and Milton Keynes have seen their property prices increase in price more than local houses at 10%, 3.5% and 1.7% respectively. With 62% of second steppers looking to buy a house, the firm suggests that they should consider starting to save now to avoid a falling into a deposit deficit. The study also showed that 61% of second time buyers haven’t saved anything towards the big upfront costs such as stamp duty, surveying costs or removal costs which can amount to almost £12,000. ‘Second steppers have been lulled into a false sense of security by rising house prices. In some parts of the country houses have far outstripped flats and so if you are looking to move up the property ladder you need to carefully plot your next steps,’ said Tashema Jackson, money expert a uSwitch. ‘Whatever your situation, plan ahead to find out what you can afford and how much you need to save. Don’t just take the first mortgage offered to you, consult a range of providers to find the best deal for you as this will help prevent paying over the odds,’ Jackson added. Continue reading
