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Planning permission for new homes in England up 4% in first quarter
The number of planning permissions granted for new homes in the first quarter of 2016 in England remained high, according to the latest housing pipeline report. Permissions for 66,102 homes were granted in the first three months of the year, up 4% on the previous year, the data from the report from the House Builders Federation and Glenigan shows. This means that the moving annual total has now recovered to just short of the pre-crash peak in the 12 months to March 2008, and is ahead of the levels in 2006 and 2007, suggesting house building can continue increasing to meet the very high level of demand for new homes. Whilst many of these permissions still have some way to go before builders can start building them, the figures are a strong indicator of future supply. Permissions have risen steadily every year since 2009, with actual housing supply also increasing markedly over the past two years as more of the permissions have progressed to the point where builders can begin building. Indeed, the report shows that the last 12 months have seen a 66% increase in permissions granted on the nadir of the recession in 2009. Numbers are now only 0.3% below where they were at the highest point in early 2008. Demand for new homes remains extremely strong. The HBF estimates there is a shortfall of well over one million homes in England. Almost a third of young people, some 3.35 million, are living at home with their parents and 1.24 million people are on housing waiting lists. The Help to Buy equity loan scheme continues to drive demand for new homes and interest rates remain historically low at the same time over 180,000 new homes were added to the housing stock in 2014/2015, up 22% on the previous year, as house builders increased output in response to the rise in demand for new homes. ‘Planning permissions are a strong indicator of future levels of supply. The past two years have seen huge increases in building levels, with housing supply in England surpassing 180,000 homes per year in 2014/2015, up 22% on the previous year,’ said Peter Andrew, deputy chairman of the HBF. But he warned that the country still faces an acute housing shortage in this country. ‘Millions of young people remain at home with their parents and we estimate we are over a million homes short of what the country needs,’ he explained. Help to Buy equity loan is driving demand and helping thousands of first time buyers a week purchase a new build home and with interest rates remaining at historically low levels, demand remains strong,’ he pointed out. Allan Wilén, economics director and head of Business Market Intelligence at Glenigan, pointed out that the level of planning approvals remains strong, driven by an increase in the number of private housing units approved. ‘The firm development pipeline demonstrates that house builders are well placed to meet any strengthening in demand from… Continue reading
Analysis suggests Brexit will have a varied impact on London property markets
The decision by the UK to leave the European Union is set to have a hugely varied impact across London's property markets with some likely to be worse off than others. According to a new analysis from independent property buying agency Black Bric, the sub-£2 million price bracket will continue to attract investors due to its favourable yields, good liquidity, and domestic demand. But the firm’s managing director Camilla Dell predicts that the same can't be said for the prime property market in London and the new build outer prime markets. ‘We expect the section of the market dominated by domestic buyers and those working in the financial services sector, predominantly £2million to £5 million but also up to the £12million to £15 million range, to potentially face some pressure linked to Brexit concerns,’ said Dell. ‘We do not expect the wholesale flight of financial services firms away from London, but it is likely that they will lose their passporting rights, or their ability to sell financial services across the EU if the UK does leave, triggering the departure of some financial services capacity to Dublin or the continent,’ she explained. ‘However, even relatively low numbers of bankers leaving areas such as South Kensington or Notting Hill where Europeans, in particular, tend to be concentrated could have a significant effect on local markets over the next couple of years,’ she added. Black Brick also expects the new-build outer prime market to suffer most from continuing uncertainty, having already experienced a lull period before the referendum vote. ‘The stock market has already heavily bid down builders linked to this part of the market, which is suffering from significant oversupply and the disappearance of the foreign investors who had supported it in recent years,’ said Dell. ‘Areas such as Nine Elms in Vauxhall and Earls Court in West London are particularly vulnerable due to oversupply of expensive properties aimed at the overseas investor. However, there are a handful of stand out developments, such as Television Centre, that we believe are likely to continue to prove popular, and there will certainly be bargains to be had, particularly on the secondary market,’ she pointed out. On the other hand, Black Brick expects the super prime market to be the least negatively affected, with the collapse of the sterling meaning that dollar buyers are actually factoring in a 12.5% increase in their purchasing power since before the referendum. ‘For the global elite buying properties at £15 million to £20 million or above, purchases tend to be about lifestyle choices, rather than business decisions, or are to diversify extremely large portfolios. Indeed, we are still seeing transactions continue. Brexit did not feature in conversations with clients in this part of the market before the referendum, and it is unlikely to be much of a factor now it is underway,’ Dell added. Meanwhile, London’s new Deputy Mayor for Housing James Murray has said there will be meeting with major developers and the… Continue reading
Pending home sales fall across all regions of the United States
After steadily increasing for three months, pending home sales in the United States let up in May with the first year on year fall for almost two years with all four major regions seeing a decline. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward looking indicator based on contract signings from the National Association of Realtors fell by 3.7% to 110.8 in May from a downwardly revised 115 in April and is now 0.2% lower than May 2015. But even with last month’s decline, the index reading is still the third highest in the past year, but declined year on year for the first time since August 2014. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, pending sales slumped in May across most of the country. ‘With demand holding firm this spring and homes selling even faster than a year ago, the notable increase in closings in recent months took a dent out of what was available for sale in May and ultimately dragged down contract activity,’ he said. ‘Realtors are acknowledging with increasing frequency lately that buyers continue to be frustrated by the tense competition and lack of affordable homes for sale in their market,’ he added. Despite mortgage rates hovering around three year lows for most of the year, Yun explained that scant supply and swiftly rising home prices which surpassed their all-time high last month are creating an availability and affordability crunch that’s preventing what should be a more robust pace of sales. ‘Total housing inventory at the end of each month has remarkably decreased year on year now for an entire year. There are simply not enough homes coming onto the market to catch up with demand and to keep prices more in line with inflation and wage growth,’ Yun pointed out. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, Yun believes that the fallout from the UK’s decision to leave the European Union breeds both immediate opportunity as well as potential headwinds for the US housing market. ‘In the short term, volatility in the financial markets could very likely lead to even lower mortgage rates and increased demand from foreign buyers looking for a safer place to invest their cash,’ he said. ‘On the other hand, any prolonged market angst and further economic uncertainty overseas could negatively impact our economy and end up tempering the overall appetite for home buying,’ he added. In spite of last month’s step back in contract signings, existing home sales this year are still expected to be around 5.44 million, a 3.7% boost from 2015. After accelerating to 6.8% a year ago, national median existing home price growth is forecast to slightly moderate to between 4% and 5%. A regional breakdown of the figures shows that the PHSI in the Northeast dropped 5.3% to 93 in May, and is now unchanged from a year ago. In the Midwest the index slipped 4.2% to 108 in May, and is now 1.8% below May 2015. Pending home sales in… Continue reading
