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Brexit uncertainty affects prime country houses in UK
Prime country house prices in the UK fell by 0.2% between April and June as uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the EU referendum filtered through to the market. On an annual basis, price growth over the year to the end of June 2016 eased to 1.3%, down from a recent high of 5.2% in 2014, according to the latest index from real estate firm Knight Frank. It is the first quarterly fall since late 2012 and prices for larger properties in the £2 million and above sector fell by even more, down 1.1%, the data also shows, taking the annual rate of growth to 0.7%. In contrast, properties priced at under £2 million recorded an average rate of growth of 0.4% over the quarter, taking the average rate of growth to 3.3%. The index reports that there was a softening in demand in the immediate run up to the vote, with potential purchasers awaiting the outcome of the referendum. The number of viewings conducted in June was 10% lower than the same month last year, and there was also a dip in new buyer enquiries. However, it points out that the EU referendum has not been the only factor at play in the market. ‘Higher purchase costs as a result of two stamp duty increases in the space of 18 months have also had an impact, weighing on price growth in some sectors of the market, most notably for homes valued in excess of £2 million,’ said Knight Frank associate Oliver Knight. The strongest markets continue to be in prime urban locations, where price growth has outperformed that in more rural locations, the report also points out. Looking ahead, the report explains that all eyes will now turn to the impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on the market. ‘There is likely to be a further period of uncertainty as the terms of the UK’s exit are worked out and this has the potential to affect some parts of the market as discretionary buyers weigh up the implications,’ said Knight. ‘However, the primary drivers of this market remain unchanged, with schools and key transport links remaining a draw for town and city markets. Prime prices are still 14% below their previous market peaks on average and, as such, there may be scope for outperformance in the short to medium term,’ he added. Continue reading
Residential asking prices up 5% across Ireland in second quarter of 2016
Asking prices for newly listed properties in Ireland increased by 5% nationally and by 3.6% in Dublin in the second quarter of 2016, the latest figures show. As housing supply continues to decline, average time to sale agreed has fallen to just four months, according to the property report from MyHome in association with Davy. The report says that Brexit may dampen medium term expectations but the UK’s decision to leave the European Union is not expected to have material impact on the Irish housing market in 2016. It also says that while the sharp gains in asking prices mainly reflect the recovery in house prices across the country with newly listed properties in Dublin rising by a more modest amount this is still four times the 0.9% increase recorded in the capital in the first quarter of the year. The mix adjusted asking price for new sales nationally is now €231,000 and €326,000 in Dublin, an increase of €11,000 for both markets compared with the first quarter of the year. For the entire stock of properties listed for sale on the MyHome website the national mix adjusted figure is €213,000, up 2.5%, the biggest quarterly increase since the third quarter of 2006. In Dublin the figure is €296,000, up 2%, which brings it back above the level seen in the second quarter of 2011. The author of the report, Conall MacCoille, chief economist at Davy, said the supply shortage and wage inflation were the key factors underpinning the latest price surge and pointed out that the number of homes for sale is down 6.7% on last year to 23,520, which is close to historical lows. ‘Not surprisingly properties are selling increasingly quickly with the average ‘sale agreed’ time falling to just four months, a new low. Outside of Dublin it has fallen to 4.8 months, the first time it has fallen below five since the financial crisis of 2008. While the government has outlined ambitious housing plans, there is no prospect of the shortage of housing supply being alleviated by new construction in the near term,’ he explained. ‘At the same time, home buyers are feeling the heat and reacting to the lack of supply by taking out ever higher mortgage debts, helped by rising wages and growing consumer confidence. In May the average mortgage approval for house purchase rose to €208,000, the first time that the average mortgage approval has exceeded €200,000 since the series began in 2011,’ he added. MacCoille believes that overall the data points to sharp gains in Irish house prices through the remainder of 2016. ‘While the potential impact of Brexit remains something of a wild card, its overall impact on the Irish economy and broader fears regarding the health of the European economy could help to temper medium term expectations for house price growth,’ he said. ‘However that probably won’t emerge until… Continue reading
Prime London property market prices down 0.2% in second quarter of 2016
Pre referendum uncertainty triggered further small price falls in the prime housing markets of London in the second quarter of 2016, according to the latest research. It also slowed growth in regional markets dependent on London buyers, according to the research report from international real estate adviser, Savills. A marginal 0.2% fall in the three month period prior to the referendum left average prime London values down 0.7% year on year and 1.4% below their pre December 2014 level, when stamp duty rates on high value homes were increased. Falls were most pronounced in prime central London where prices fell 1.4% in the quarter. This left values in London’s most exclusive markets on average 3.9% down year on year and 8% below their peak in the third quarter of 2014. Weakened sentiment and a slowing of the London market also impacted the prime regional markets, resulting in small quarterly price falls of 0.4% in the suburbs. Property in the inner and outer commuter zones around London saw marginally positive price growth in the quarter limited to just 0.2% and 0.9% respectively, as the market slowed in response to a lack of urgency amongst buyers. ‘There have been conflicting signals in the market in the period post referendum, which suggests the impact of a vote to leave the European Union will only become clear over coming months as the market finds its level,’ said Lucian Cook, head of UK residential research at Savills. ‘Falls in sterling have prompted some international buyers to re-enter the market, while there has also been a fair share of speculative bids from those hoping to secure a bargain. Against this context, sellers have generally taken a pragmatic approach around pricing without having to slash their expectations,’ he explained. ‘Prime regional markets are at a different stage in their cycle, having been slower to recover peak 2007 values, and therefore appear to have been less affected by pre referendum uncertainty,’ he added. Continue reading
