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Brexit having more of an effect on Greater London property than rest of UK
Asking prices in the Greater London property market fell by 1.2% between July and August with analysis suggesting Brexit is having more of an impact on the city than other parts of the UK. This is the third monthly fall in a row, with Greater London's average asking prices falling by 1.1% between June and July and by 0.4% the previous month, according to the date from Home.co.uk. The annual rate of price inflation for Greater London property now stands at just 2.5% and falling. The firm is predicting this will fall to 0% within a mere two months, highlighting the very real danger that negative equity is just around the corner. Foreign buyers who purchased a property in London within the last 12 months are probably already in negative equity, the analysis suggests and it points out that in terms of Euros, Greater London home prices have shown a dismal performance over the last year, with values in the region dropping 11% since May and 17% since November last year. However, there is a potential upside that European buyers may be attracted back to the market but house prices and sterling will need to stabilise for that to occur. Housing supply figures from Home.co.uk strongly suggest further price falls are inevitable in the capital as Greater London vendors overload the property market in the aftermath of June's Brexit vote. Between July 2016 and July 2015 new listings in London increased by 27%, compared to a year on year rise of 6% the month before. The typical time on the market has also risen sharply from 68 days in July to 73 days in August, forcing vendors to further cut prices in a property market that was already in a precarious position through buy to let taxation changes and warnings about overvaluation. The South East of England, where in August asking prices fell by 0.2% for the second month in a row, is showing signs of becoming the next property price slump hot spot, as panic selling in the capital spreads out into the capital's commuter belt and beyond, the report also suggests. Between July 2015 and July 2016 the supply of property for sale in this region rose by 19% and the firm is predicting that the South East's typical time on the market of 63 days is likely to rise markedly due to the boost in supply in this region. ‘It is clear that the referendum result certainly unnerved many investors. We will be keeping a particularly close eye on the London market over the next month, watching whether or not the surge in new listings becomes a stampede,’ said Doug Shephard, director at Home.co.uk. ‘This would inevitably lead to a home price crash in the region and stress mortgage lenders to the limit or beyond. Property investors would be well advised to weather the storm and not join a rush to market,’ he added. Continue reading
UK residential sales drop just 0.9% post Brexit vote
Residential property sales in the UK fell slightly by 0.9% between June 2016 and July 2016 and were down 8.3% lower compared with the same period in 2015, according to the latest data from HMRC. For July 2016 the number of non-adjusted residential transactions was about 0.7% higher compared with June 2016 and 13.6% lower than in July 2015. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of non-residential property transactions decreased by 7.5% between June 2016 and July 2016 and was 1.7% lower compared with the same month last year. The report points out that there was a large increase in transactions in March 2016 followed by a substantial reduction in April which was associated with the introduction of the higher stamp duty rates on additional properties in April 2016. However, whilst April and May 2016 are lower than the corresponding months in 2015, it should be noted that the total for March to May 2016 is still substantially higher than the corresponding period last year. Non-tax factors may have played a role as well, for example the Bank of England's plans to curb buy to let mortgages resulting in a rush to purchase before April 2016, and the European Union referendum affecting transactions in recent months. According to Andy Sommerville, director of Search Acumen, the statistics suggest the market is stabilising, as the month on month change sits at under 1%. ‘Many would have expected a sharp fall in transaction activity in what was the first full month in our post-referendum economy, yet an underwhelming change suggests the darkness in our market shows little sign of worsening,’ he said. ‘Despite the encouraging resilience the market has shown in the short term, the bigger picture reveals an 8.3% decrease in transactions since July last year, demonstrating the true hit we’ve taken from Brexit, combined with the underlying issue of affordability,’ he pointed out. ‘As our economy absorbs the shock of the past three months, it is positive that home buyers are being given a leg-up into the property market to reignite demand and boost our industry,’ he added. Doug Crawford, chief executive officer of My Home Move, believes the data shows that the property market largely shook off the short term uncertainty of the Brexit vote. ‘Following the referendum there was talk that the market would be quickly affected by the outcome, but these fears have been allayed with residential transactions falling by just 0.9% month on month. While transaction levels remain lower than a year ago, this is in the context of a market that is still feeling the effects of changes to stamp duty, which led to a frontloaded first quarter,’ he explained. ‘The figures reflect our own experiences of the market. Following the referendum the vast majority of purchases went ahead without any issue, and chains were largely unaffected. In the medium term the market will remain stable, and our view is that it is strong enough to weather… Continue reading
Interest from buyers in inner London new developments waning
A new analysis suggests that while there has been an increase in development in London the new homes are concentrated in a handful of areas and some are so pricey that interest from buyers is waning. The result is a deepening new build crisis in inner London in particular and the lack of interest in new builds is seeing prices fall. The report from London Central Portfolio shows that overall the number of new developments approved for construction has surged this year, with a substantial 20% increase in the planning pipeline since 2013, representing 106,208 new units. However, this pipeline is largely made up of projects in cluster areas around Tower Hamlets and south of the river in the Battersea-Nine Elms area where there is already a proliferation of new developments. This year, a further 33,239 and 18,665 units respectively are now scheduled to be built. New applications have also rocketed. Applications for 17,494 new units including 111 towers, buildings over 20 storeys, have been submitted, a 27% increase on 2013. This is equivalent to one new tower application every three days, of which 90% are located in Tower Hamlets and Wandsworth’s Battersea-Nine Elms development. Despite the ever increasing number of new developments, however, statistics have shown that the attraction of these new properties, where prices now average £914,532, is waning. According to LCP’s analysis of the Government’s Land Registry data, only 1,491 new units have been sold so far this year, a substantial 43% decrease on this time in 2015. This compares with older properties in inner London where transactions have remained static, 13,194 in 2016 compared with 13,190 over the same period last year. The analysis also shows that square foot prices have also fallen for new properties. Across the Battersea-Nine Elms stretch, for example, prices are down 8% on their 2014 high. This is in stark contrast to London as a whole where prices are up 23%. New build sales volumes are also significantly down, decreasing 43% on the same period last year but the prime central London market remains largely protected, due to its limited new build potential. Sales activity has been normal in the first half of this year ‘In light of the plethora of tax hits over the last few years, possibly exacerbated by the uncertainty of Brexit, it appears foreign investors, the majority buyer of new developments, may finally be turning away,’ said Naomi Heaton, chief executive of LCP. ‘These properties typically sell at a significant premium, averaging 25%, over older stock. History demonstrates that a saturation of overpriced commodity style property leads to softening prices, particularly during times of economic uncertainty,’ she explained. ‘In Tower Hamlets, for example, which undertook an extensive building programme before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), prices took six years to reach parity with their pre-recession level. In contrast in prime central London, where there is very limited new build due to the conservation of… Continue reading
